Friday, April 17, 2009

I am the Most Famous Person You Know

I promise not to let this go to my head. ESPN.com hasn't put the link up on their front page yet, but ESPN.com will come up now when my name is Google searched, and that's pretty fantastic. It's worth listening to the podcast as well. I'm going to have to defend my title this summer, but I'm not very worried about it right now.

Since we're a week away from the NFL draft, I thought I'd provide my first round projection as of this moment. I'm going to assume that the pending trade of OT Jason Peters from the Buffalo Bills to the Philadelphia Eagles goes through. I think that's a good trade for both teams.

Pretty much every team in the Top 10 will want to trade down for better value, but I don't think that's going to happen because no one wants to trade up for any of these players. I actually think there will be a lot of trades around the first round of this draft, but they're going to be unpredictable. I'll put teams that would prefer to trade out, but I'm going to assume that every team is going to be stuck picking where they are.

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia. The Lions need some direction as a franchise and need someone for their fans to believe in. Because this draft is deep in offensive tackle talent, they'll pass on two players who I think teams will have questions about.
2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor. The Rams need to rebuild their offense, and that starts at offensive tackle. They will start Alex Barron and this pick, but training camp will decide who will be the anchor on the left side.
3. Kansas City Chiefs - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech. New coach Todd Haley knows that you can win with the passing game, as does new quarterback Matt Cassell. They have the linebackers to take a stab at the flex packages of new DC Clancy Pendergast, but Crabtree will the the dynamic threat that will make Bobby Engram and Dwayne Bowe even better.
4. Seattle Seahawks - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia. It's funny that high draft picks from Virginia rarely become more than solid players at the next level. I think that the Seahawks would like to trade down a little bit and get Mark Sanchez. They'll use this pick as the heir apparent to Walter Jones.
5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas. Rarely is there as good a fit between a prospect and a team than we have here. Orakpo will be able to begin his career as a situational pass rusher as he gets used to his other linebacker responsibilities.
6. Cincinnati Bengals - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama. Smith can be an All-Pro right tackle as a rookie for the Bengals, who need to jump-start their offense and protect their franchise quarterback.
7. Oakland Raiders - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri. Owner Al Davis loves skill position players and loves speed even more.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest. Linebackers always, always, always slip down draft boards. There has been a lot of chatter that the Jags would like to draft QB Mark Sanchez with this pick, but they gave a big extension to David Garrard just last season. They thought they might trade out of this pick to a quarterback-needy team, but they sprint to the podium when they find a rare player like Curry still on their board.
9. Green Bay Packers - Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State. The Packers are transitioning to a base 3-4 defense. This gives the Packers much greater flexibility with their pass rush packages.
10. San Francisco 49ers - Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S, Ohio State. Jenkins will be a free safety at the beginning of his career, and then perhaps transition to cornerback if the 49ers transition to a Cover-2 defense. If the draft breaks this way, San Francisco could get a nice yield for Mark Sanchez, or draft him themselves.
11. Buffalo Bills - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU. Jackson gives the Bills a meaty presence at defensive end, and a two-way player who never has to leave the field.
12. Denver Broncos - B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College. Players of Raji's size and speed are rare in the NFL. He will immediately upgrade the Broncos' defense agains the pass and the run.
13. Washington Redskins - Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern Cal. Dan Snyder gets to make a spalsh and make headlines through the rest of the offseason while talking heads discuss the QB controversy in the Capitol. Sanchez remains in a West Coast offense and gets to be part of a premire NFL franchise.
14. New Orleans Saints - Chris "Beanie" Wells, RB, Ohio State. The Saints are crazy for drafting offense again, but there are no exceptional defensive players on the board. The Saints would love to trade down for a team that wants an OT or linebacker, but they'll end up happy with the second coming of Deuce McAllister.
15. Houston Texans - Brian Cushing, LB, Southern Cal. The Texans are trying to build the best front-seven in the NFL, and they're well on their way if the coaches can get all the pieces working together. Houston would definitely be able to trade out of this pick to a team looking for an OT or the last quality QB in this draft.
16. San Diego Chargers - Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi. Oher solidifies the right tackle position for the San Diego Chargers and would make all the skill positions even better. The Chargers looked long and hard at Rey-Rey, but Oher was too good a prospect to pass up.
17. New York Jets - Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas St. The New York Jets are actually a pretty solid team except for the guy who touches the ball on every offensive play. The Jets would be wise to take the Miami Dolphins route and aquire a veteran presence to compete for the starting job with Freeman and Kellen Clemens.
18. Denver Broncos (via Chicago Bears) - Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern Cal. The Denver Broncos are thrilled with the first round of their draft after this selection is made. Rey-Rey is a playmaker and a leader.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi. The Tampa-2 defense runs because of a quick, penetrating defenisve tackle just like Jerry. If the draft breaks down like this, the Bucs would love to trade out of this position.
20. Detroit Lions (via Dallas Cowboys) - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois. The Lions effectively have no starting-caliber cornerbacks. This pick makes them better.
21. Philadelphia Eagles - Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn St. The Eagles love taking defensive linemen with thier early picks, and this gives genius DC Jim Johnson another weapon to work with.
22. Minnesota Vikings - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma St. The Vikes would love to trade out of this position, and would likely find a partner. Instead, they add to their ability to block from their exceptional running back tandem and gives whoever is their quarterback a quality safety valve.
23. New England Patriots - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia. It's impossible to understand how Bill Belichek ends up in the situation where incredible players fall to him. Someone will almost certainly trade up to this point to grab a talent like Moreno.
24. Atlanta Falcons - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Ayers will anchor the strong side of the Falcons' defensive line and push Jamaal Anderson closer to being a complete bust.
25. Miami Dolphins - Clay Matthews, LB, Southern Cal. Gives the Dolphins an excellent character player and a pass rushing presence on the outside of their 3-4 defense.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Darrious Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. The Ravens would like to trade this pick to the Arizona Cardinals for Anquan Boldin, but they will be happy adding another weapon for Joe Flacco to develop with.
27. Indianapolis Colts - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida. The Colts hate drafting in the first round, and would likely trade back to the 2nd. But Harvin gives them a dynamic slot WR and return specialist.
28. Buffalo Bills (via Carolina Panthers through Philadelphia Eagles) - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona. The Bills now need a left tackle to block for Marshawn Lynch and Trent Edwards. Britton will work for them and probably not hold out all of training camp. Also, since Britton went to college in Tucson, Buffalo will feel like Manhattan.
29. New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina. Nicks isn't the home-run threat or has the rare size to replace Plaxico Burress, but does give Eli Manning a reliable target on third-and-six.
30. Tennessee Titans - James Laurinitis, LB, Ohio State. Laurinitis goes into an excellent situation because the Titans are excellent at protecting their linebackers. He'll also provide excellent leadership to this unit.
31. Arizona Cardinals - Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut. Brown is a complete running back. The Cards look hard at LB Larry English, but they look at their board and see that there will probably be a hybrid pass-rusher available where they pick in the second round (like Clint Sintim, Michael Johnson, Conor Barwin, or Paul Kruger). Brown immediately becomes the starting rusher and allows Edgerrin James to get his long-desired release.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Alex Mack, OC, California. This seems like the most logical pick in the draft; all of the experts are picking Mack to Pittsburg. This essentially assures that it will not happen.

That's the way I see it. Actually, I expect that fewer linebackers and more wide receivers will come out in the first round, but I have a hard time putting it together. Also, I think that more cornerbacks will come out.

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